Caution Rules in Best Bond Year Since ’02: Credit Markets
By Sridhar Natarajan Dec 30, 2014 4:56 PM MT
In the best year for the global bond market in more than a decade, investors were rewarded more for being cautious than for taking big risks.
Fixed-income assets of all types generated an average total return of 7.6 percent, led by gains ingovernment securities such as U.S. Treasuries and German bunds. Corporate junk bondsturned in their worst performance since the 2008 financial crisis, returning just 2.5 percent.
Almost no one expected this year to turn out the way it did for the bond market, as most economists and strategists failed to anticipate the weakness in the global economy and inflation or the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. That led the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan to continue with policies that had the effect of suppressing interest rates and sparking demand for the safest of assets.
“Everybody got it wrong this year in the bond market,” Adrian Miller, director of fixed-income strategies at GMP Securities LLC in New York, said in a telephone interview. “The economy didn’t improve to the degree people were expecting and even the global economy didn’t respond as expected.”
Missed Forecasts
Global economic growth will be about 3.2 percent for 2014, according to forecasts compiled by Bloomberg, compared with 3.5 percent predicted at the start of the year. A year ago, when the benchmark 10-year Treasury note was trading at about 3 percent, the median estimate of economists and strategists surveyed by Bloomberg was for it to rise to 3.44 percent by now. Instead, it slid to 2.2 percent as of yesterday.
The average yield on bonds globally fell to a record low 1.5 percent in October. It has since climbed to 1.6 percent.
The yield on company debentures worldwide at 3.5 percent is still below its five-year average of 4 percent. Companies tapped the opportunity to borrow at historically low interest rates, raising a record $4.1 trillion from the market this year.
The U.S. central bank said this month it “can be patient” in raising short-term interest rates that have been pegged near zero for six years even as the ECB prepares to flood its financial system with cash to revive tepid economic growth and ward off deflation. At the same time, a 50 percent tumble in oil prices from their June peak put pressure on a large portion of the junk-bond market, wiping out most of the year’s gains.
Government Returns
Government bonds globally have returned 8.1 percent this year, according to the Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Broad Market Sovereign Plus Index. U.S. government securities have gained 5.9 percent this year, according to the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index, which is set for its biggest annual gain since 2011. Treasuries with maturities of 10 years or more have returned 24 percent, while notes with one- to five-year maturities gained 1.2 percent, Bloomberg indexes show.
U.K. gilts returned 14 percent in 2014 through Dec. 19, leaving them poised for the best year since 2011, according to Bloomberg World Bond Indexes, as the Bank of England kept its maininterest rate at a record low to support growth. German bunds advanced 10 percent, the gauges show, as steps to ease monetary conditions by the ECB and safe-haven demand pushed yields to record lows.
Investment-grade corporate debentures from North America to Europe and Asia posted a 7.6 percent increase, building on the 0.05 percent advance all of last year, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.
High-Grade Funds
High-grade bond funds in the U.S. have seen an uptick in demand, with a 5.3 percent increase in assets under management, or a $94.9 billion expansion, according to a Dec. 18 report from Bank of America Corp. That’s the biggest percentage gain among asset classes tracked by the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank. High-yield fund redemptions reached 5.3 percent, with investors pulling $17.4 billion this year, according to the report.
The market for speculative-grade debt globally, which was on track for 9 percent gains this year at the end of August, tumbled with the collapse in oil prices. U.S. crude production reached record levels as a combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing unlocked supplies from shale formations. The energy sector recorded an 8.8 percent loss.
‘Fantastic Year’
Corporate loans, which were in vogue in 2013 as investors piled into the debt based the outlook for rising rates, have generated gains of 1 percent in 2014, compared with 5 percent last year. Withdrawals from funds that purchase loans, which have rates that rise or fall with benchmarks, soared to 12 percent this year, according to the BofA report.
Mortgage-backed securities in the U.S. are set to post their best gains in three years, with 2014 returns climbing to 6 percent, index data show. Other kinds of asset-backed debt rose 1.6 percent after a 0.9 percent 2013 rise.
“Investment-grade funds have had a fantastic year and produced some very strong returns,” said James Tomlins, a London-based fund manager at M&G Investments, which oversees 257 billion pounds ($400 billion) of assets. “The sense of uncertainty about European growth going forward has hurt high yield. The outlook was better at the start of the year and then suddenly there was a big change in growth expectations for a lot of European companies.”
Tensions in Russia and Ukraine made investors less willing to take credit risk, according to Tomlins. Russia annexed Crimea, a peninsula in the Black Sea where it maintains a naval base, which was transferred to Ukraine in 1954 and retaken by force in March.
The economy’s failure to meet initial 2014 forecasts was caused by bigger-than-anticipated slowdowns in emerging markets and a failure by the euro area to gain traction, according to economists at JPMorgan Chase & Co. China, meanwhile, is seeing economic growth of about 7.3 percent for this year, the lowest since 1990.
“Investors priced in a Cinderella scenario, where you see Europe turn around, U.S. wage growth and China at double-digit growth,” Thomas Byrne, director of fixed-income at Wealth Strategies & Management LLC, said by telephone from Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania. “The market had priced in a fairytale outcome and that’s not what happened, and that’s resulted in this drive to safer assets.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Sridhar Natarajan in New York atsnatarajan15@bloomberg.net
